If the Lindy Effect is useful for forward-looking predictions, it would seem to be a way of calibrating our priors before modifying them with evidence from the inside view.
Example: We’ve had Christian states since Christianity became the official soft drink religion of the Roman Empire 313 AD. To estimate how much longer they’ll last, we start by recognizing that absent any inside view information, our best bet would be to estimate it’ll last to around the year 2500, plus or minus 500 years. Then we move from this starting point by considering inside view evidence and heuristics.
What’s the trend on proportion of world population living in a Christian state over time? What’s its status in the nine nations where it’s still the official state religion? What if the AI foom permanently disrupts all our institutions?
Do we think that pre-industrial institutions have demonstrated durability by transcending technological and social shifts? Are they especially fragile, since they aren’t built to respond to the demands of the modern era? Or are these heuristics too ambiguous to be useful?
If the Lindy Effect is useful for forward-looking predictions, it would seem to be a way of calibrating our priors before modifying them with evidence from the inside view.
Example: We’ve had Christian states since Christianity became the official
soft drinkreligion of the Roman Empire 313 AD. To estimate how much longer they’ll last, we start by recognizing that absent any inside view information, our best bet would be to estimate it’ll last to around the year 2500, plus or minus 500 years. Then we move from this starting point by considering inside view evidence and heuristics.What’s the trend on proportion of world population living in a Christian state over time? What’s its status in the nine nations where it’s still the official state religion? What if the AI foom permanently disrupts all our institutions?
Do we think that pre-industrial institutions have demonstrated durability by transcending technological and social shifts? Are they especially fragile, since they aren’t built to respond to the demands of the modern era? Or are these heuristics too ambiguous to be useful?