Most members of this set simply haven’t yet encountered one of the common attractors—LessWrong, CFAR, Superintelligence, HPMOR, 80k, etc. Perhaps this is because they don’t speak English, or because they’re sufficiently excited about their current research that they don’t often explore beyond it, or because they’re 16 and can’t psychologically justify doing things outside the category “prepare for college,” or because they’re finally about to get tenure and are actively trying to avoid getting nerd sniped by topics in other domains, or because they don’t have many friends so only get introduced to new topics they think to Google, or simply because despite being exactly the sort of person who would get nerd sniped by this problem if they’d ever encountered it they just… never have, not even the basic “maybe it will be a problem if we build machines smarter than us, huh?”, and maybe it shouldn’t be much more surprising that there might still exist pockets of extremely smart people who’ve never thought to wonder this than that there presumably existed pockets of smart people for millennia who never thought to wonder what effects might result from more successful organisms reproducing more?
Most members of this set have encountered one of the common attractors, or at least the basic ideas, but only in some poor and limited form that left them idea inoculated. Maybe they heard Kurzweil make a weirdly-specific claim once, or the advisor they really respect told them the whole field is pseudoscience that assumes AI will have human-like consciousness and drives to power, or they tried reading some of Eliezer’s posts and hated the writing style, or they felt sufficiently convinced by an argument for super-long timelines that investigating the issue more didn’t feel decision-relevant.
The question is ill-formed: perhaps because there just aren’t 50 people who could helpfully contribute who aren’t doing so already, or because the framing of the question implies the “50” is the relevant thing to track whereas actually research productivity is power law-ey and the vast majority of the benefit would come from finding just one or three particular members of this set and finding them would require asking different questions.
Example answers which strike me as plausible:
Most members of this set simply haven’t yet encountered one of the common attractors—LessWrong, CFAR, Superintelligence, HPMOR, 80k, etc. Perhaps this is because they don’t speak English, or because they’re sufficiently excited about their current research that they don’t often explore beyond it, or because they’re 16 and can’t psychologically justify doing things outside the category “prepare for college,” or because they’re finally about to get tenure and are actively trying to avoid getting nerd sniped by topics in other domains, or because they don’t have many friends so only get introduced to new topics they think to Google, or simply because despite being exactly the sort of person who would get nerd sniped by this problem if they’d ever encountered it they just… never have, not even the basic “maybe it will be a problem if we build machines smarter than us, huh?”, and maybe it shouldn’t be much more surprising that there might still exist pockets of extremely smart people who’ve never thought to wonder this than that there presumably existed pockets of smart people for millennia who never thought to wonder what effects might result from more successful organisms reproducing more?
Most members of this set have encountered one of the common attractors, or at least the basic ideas, but only in some poor and limited form that left them idea inoculated. Maybe they heard Kurzweil make a weirdly-specific claim once, or the advisor they really respect told them the whole field is pseudoscience that assumes AI will have human-like consciousness and drives to power, or they tried reading some of Eliezer’s posts and hated the writing style, or they felt sufficiently convinced by an argument for super-long timelines that investigating the issue more didn’t feel decision-relevant.
The question is ill-formed: perhaps because there just aren’t 50 people who could helpfully contribute who aren’t doing so already, or because the framing of the question implies the “50” is the relevant thing to track whereas actually research productivity is power law-ey and the vast majority of the benefit would come from finding just one or three particular members of this set and finding them would require asking different questions.