I updated downward somewhat on the sanity of our civilization, but not to an extremely low value or from a high value. That update justifies only a partial update on the sanity of the average human civilization (maybe the problem is specific to our history and culture), which justifies only a partial update on the sanity of the average civilization (maybe the problem is specific to humans), which justifies only a partial update on the sanity of outcomes (maybe achieving high sanity is really easy or hard). So all things considered (aside from your second paragraph) it doesn’t seem like it justifies, say, doubling the amount of worry about these things.
I agree recent events don’t justify a huge update by themselves if one started with a reasonable prior. It’s more that I somehow failed to consider the possibility of that scenario, the recent events made me consider it, and that’s why it triggered a big update for me.
I updated downward somewhat on the sanity of our civilization, but not to an extremely low value or from a high value. That update justifies only a partial update on the sanity of the average human civilization (maybe the problem is specific to our history and culture), which justifies only a partial update on the sanity of the average civilization (maybe the problem is specific to humans), which justifies only a partial update on the sanity of outcomes (maybe achieving high sanity is really easy or hard). So all things considered (aside from your second paragraph) it doesn’t seem like it justifies, say, doubling the amount of worry about these things.
I agree recent events don’t justify a huge update by themselves if one started with a reasonable prior. It’s more that I somehow failed to consider the possibility of that scenario, the recent events made me consider it, and that’s why it triggered a big update for me.