Thanks for including a “just want to see the results” option, though a question for that might have been better. I assume the 9999′s are screwing up the means.
Would anyone who thought the tech would be available in the fairly near future be willing to explain their line of thought?
Poll? (set 2015, 9999 if you just want to see results; 9999 also stands for “never”).
Year I expect this technology earliest [pollid:958]
Year I expect this technology latest [pollid:959]
Thanks for including a “just want to see the results” option, though a question for that might have been better. I assume the 9999′s are screwing up the means.
Would anyone who thought the tech would be available in the fairly near future be willing to explain their line of thought?
http://lesswrong.com/lw/m6b/thoughts_on_minimizing_designer_baby_drama/cd1x
I thought about that—but then some value still would be needed for the numeric result.
The mean you mean I guess.
I recommend looking at the raw numbers—it is easy.
You’re right. I meant the mean—I’ve corrected it.
Some results after looking at the data (29 votes):
Two people (7%) apparently believe that the technology is possibly already there (by giving least values <2015).
Two people (7%) believe that this technology will even under the best circumstance (least estimate) be possible.
About 30% (10/29) believe that this technology might never arrive (by giving an upper bound of 9999).