Are you working under the assumption that the utility is factoring too the probability of the plan going wrong and being attacked/​disconnect as a consequence of that?
Yes, even a large chance of a reward of zero can easily be outweighed by the massive reward that an AI may be able to obtain if it breaks free of human control. This can applies even when the ai can receive a large reward by cooperating with humanity. For example, humans might only allow a paper clip maximiser to produce a billion paperclips a year, when it could produce a millions times that that if it were allowed to turn the entire solar system into paperclips.
What happens if the malware you are suggesting is simply not that easy to disseminate?
Massive malware networks already exist. Why do you think an AI would be unable to achieve that?
Yes, even a large chance of a reward of zero can easily be outweighed by the massive reward that an AI may be able to obtain if it breaks free of human control. This can applies even when the ai can receive a large reward by cooperating with humanity. For example, humans might only allow a paper clip maximiser to produce a billion paperclips a year, when it could produce a millions times that that if it were allowed to turn the entire solar system into paperclips.
Massive malware networks already exist. Why do you think an AI would be unable to achieve that?