I think an answer is mainly how “fat” the tail is, which you addressed.
i am wondering though, how much of the risks to animals in animal trials apply to humans. not because of difference in biology, but whether we can know how much we don’t know about a vaccine before we give it, and only give the least uncertain to humans (cause i assume we’re being less careful on animals). i guess we can’t know much and my prior on testing vaccines was “dangerous on average, with really fat tail”
I think an answer is mainly how “fat” the tail is, which you addressed.
i am wondering though, how much of the risks to animals in animal trials apply to humans. not because of difference in biology, but whether we can know how much we don’t know about a vaccine before we give it, and only give the least uncertain to humans (cause i assume we’re being less careful on animals). i guess we can’t know much and my prior on testing vaccines was “dangerous on average, with really fat tail”