Most labor (including almost physical labor) has been replaced by robots. The jobs that remain consist of research and application of AI and robotics.
This conclusion is still ‘doubted’. I generally agree with you that this is possible but there is a huge gap between where we are now, and actually reliable, real time, economical to deploy robotics. As far as I know, actual robotics using deep learning for commercial tasks is extremely rare. I have not heard of any, I’ve just seen OpenAI and Google’s demos.
It’s sort of the difference between “have demoed a train that could run in a tunnel” and “have dug a tunnel” and “have a working subway line” to “the whole city is interconnected”.
In real life examples the gap there was many decades.
Yeah, I definitely think we’re very early in the transition. I would still say it’s extremely likely (>90%) even given no new “breakthroughs”.
The real-life commercial uses of AI+robotics are still pretty limited at this point. Off the top of my head I can only think of Roomba, Tesla, Kiva and those security robots in malls.
Anecdotally, from the people I talk do deep learning + any application in science seems to yield immediate low-hanging fruit (one recent example being protein folding). I think the limiting factor right now is the number of deep learning + robotics experts is extremely small. It’s also the case that a robot has to be very cheap to compete with an employee making minimum wage (even in developed countries). If there were 10000x as many deep learning experts and everyone in the world was earning $30/hour I think we would see robots taking over many more jobs than we do presently.
I also think it’s likely that better AI + more compute will dramatically accelerate this transition. Maybe there will be some threshold at which this transition will become more obviously inevitable than it is today.
Perhaps”when will TAI be developed?” is something that can only be answered retrospectively. By way of analogy, it now seems obvious to us that the invention of the steam engine (1698) and flying shuttle (1733) marked the beginning of a major change in how humans worked, but it wasn’t until the 1800′s that those changes began to appear in the labor market.
Sure. And the kiva and roomba examples : at a low level both machines could work using pure non deep learning software. 2d SLAM is a ‘classic’ technique at this point, and nothing in the way kiva robots move in x-y grids requires deep learning to work.
Robots that for example do soft complex object picking are using DL, and are an example of a machine that actually needs it to work. Ditto any autonomous car.
Yeah Tesla is using DL for the distance estimation. Dunno about the mall robots.
Most labor (including almost physical labor) has been replaced by robots. The jobs that remain consist of research and application of AI and robotics.
This conclusion is still ‘doubted’. I generally agree with you that this is possible but there is a huge gap between where we are now, and actually reliable, real time, economical to deploy robotics. As far as I know, actual robotics using deep learning for commercial tasks is extremely rare. I have not heard of any, I’ve just seen OpenAI and Google’s demos.
It’s sort of the difference between “have demoed a train that could run in a tunnel” and “have dug a tunnel” and “have a working subway line” to “the whole city is interconnected”.
In real life examples the gap there was many decades.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beach_Pneumatic_Transit [1869]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tremont_Street_subway [1903]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IND_Sixth_Avenue_Line [1940] : approximately the completion date of the NYC system
Yeah, I definitely think we’re very early in the transition. I would still say it’s extremely likely (>90%) even given no new “breakthroughs”.
The real-life commercial uses of AI+robotics are still pretty limited at this point. Off the top of my head I can only think of Roomba, Tesla, Kiva and those security robots in malls.
Anecdotally, from the people I talk do deep learning + any application in science seems to yield immediate low-hanging fruit (one recent example being protein folding). I think the limiting factor right now is the number of deep learning + robotics experts is extremely small. It’s also the case that a robot has to be very cheap to compete with an employee making minimum wage (even in developed countries). If there were 10000x as many deep learning experts and everyone in the world was earning $30/hour I think we would see robots taking over many more jobs than we do presently.
I also think it’s likely that better AI + more compute will dramatically accelerate this transition. Maybe there will be some threshold at which this transition will become more obviously inevitable than it is today.
Perhaps”when will TAI be developed?” is something that can only be answered retrospectively. By way of analogy, it now seems obvious to us that the invention of the steam engine (1698) and flying shuttle (1733) marked the beginning of a major change in how humans worked, but it wasn’t until the 1800′s that those changes began to appear in the labor market.
Sure. And the kiva and roomba examples : at a low level both machines could work using pure non deep learning software. 2d SLAM is a ‘classic’ technique at this point, and nothing in the way kiva robots move in x-y grids requires deep learning to work.
Robots that for example do soft complex object picking are using DL, and are an example of a machine that actually needs it to work. Ditto any autonomous car.
Yeah Tesla is using DL for the distance estimation. Dunno about the mall robots.