I agree with Steve; we have to take a step back and ask not for probabilities but for decision algorithms that aim to achieve certain goals, then it all makes sense; it has to—based upon materialism, whatever definition of “you” you try to settle upon, “you” is some set of physical objects that behave according to a certain decision algorithm, and given the decision algorithm, “you” will have a well-defined expected future reward.
I agree with Steve; we have to take a step back and ask not for probabilities but for decision algorithms that aim to achieve certain goals, then it all makes sense; it has to—based upon materialism, whatever definition of “you” you try to settle upon, “you” is some set of physical objects that behave according to a certain decision algorithm, and given the decision algorithm, “you” will have a well-defined expected future reward.