Thanks. I think the possible failure mode of this definition is now in the opposite direction: it’s possible there will be an AI that provides less than 2x acceleration according to this new definition (it’s not super good at the type of tasks humans typically do), but it’s so good at mass-producing new RL environments or something else, and that mass-production turns out to so useful, that the existence of this model already kicks off a rapid intelligence explosion. I agree this is not too likely in the short term though, so the new imprecise definition is probably kind of reasonable for now.
You could do something like “2x labor acceleration of labor humans would otherwise/typically do” OR “AI progress is overall >1.5x faster (due to AI usage, or maybe just for whatever reason)”.
Thanks. I think the possible failure mode of this definition is now in the opposite direction: it’s possible there will be an AI that provides less than 2x acceleration according to this new definition (it’s not super good at the type of tasks humans typically do), but it’s so good at mass-producing new RL environments or something else, and that mass-production turns out to so useful, that the existence of this model already kicks off a rapid intelligence explosion. I agree this is not too likely in the short term though, so the new imprecise definition is probably kind of reasonable for now.
You could do something like “2x labor acceleration of labor humans would otherwise/typically do” OR “AI progress is overall >1.5x faster (due to AI usage, or maybe just for whatever reason)”.