So you’re saying that you think that a more infectious virus will not increase infections by as high a percentage of otherwise expected infections under conditions with more precautions, versus conditions with less precautions? What’s the physical mechanism there? I don’t understand it, and if I’m going to believe it, I’ll need an explanation of physically how it works that way, if it works that way.
As for the outside view thing, well, sure, of course, but it doesn’t sound like you have very different models of what might be done by people in these scenarios this time—your theory is that the lockdowns can work.
But I’d also ask, even if it would be enough, how long do you think England is prepared to keep the Tier 4 + Schools thing in place for and get cooperation? And do you think the USA could get to that level at all at this point? Especially given it only levels things off at a very high level, and doesn’t actually make much progress, so you can never relax. And the overall UK numbers are still steadily getting worse.
So you’re saying that you think that a more infectious virus will not increase infections by as high a percentage of otherwise expected infections under conditions with more precautions, versus conditions with less precautions? What’s the physical mechanism there?
Wouldn’t “the fractal nature of risk taking” cause this? If some people are taking lots of risk, but they comply with actually strict lockdowns, then those lockdowns would work better than might otherwise be expected. No?
But I’d also ask, even if it would be enough, how long do you think England is prepared to keep the Tier 4 + Schools thing in place for and get cooperation? And do you think the USA could get to that level at all at this point? Especially given it only levels things off at a very high level, and doesn’t actually make much progress, so you can never relax. And the overall UK numbers are still steadily getting worse.
So you’re saying that you think that a more infectious virus will not increase infections by as high a percentage of otherwise expected infections under conditions with more precautions, versus conditions with less precautions? What’s the physical mechanism there? I don’t understand it, and if I’m going to believe it, I’ll need an explanation of physically how it works that way, if it works that way.
As for the outside view thing, well, sure, of course, but it doesn’t sound like you have very different models of what might be done by people in these scenarios this time—your theory is that the lockdowns can work.
But I’d also ask, even if it would be enough, how long do you think England is prepared to keep the Tier 4 + Schools thing in place for and get cooperation? And do you think the USA could get to that level at all at this point? Especially given it only levels things off at a very high level, and doesn’t actually make much progress, so you can never relax. And the overall UK numbers are still steadily getting worse.
Wouldn’t “the fractal nature of risk taking” cause this? If some people are taking lots of risk, but they comply with actually strict lockdowns, then those lockdowns would work better than might otherwise be expected. No?
Hi I am a political scientist and I have an article about this exact question. You can read it here and give constructive comments—https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/em5HYZ6cq9tt65842/why-lockdowns-failed-a-letter-to-the-policy-entrepreneurs-in