(yes I live in a cave where I don’t think the new strain is being identified) Why does the old strain disappear? And shouldn’t we expect yet another strain after very many people get infected? (Of course, it could go whichever way with it spreading faster or not.)
By assumption here the new strain is more infectious than the old strain, either 50% or 65% more (in the sheet you can set it to anything you like). I am highly confident it’s near that range. The control system reacts to the new strain’s rise, and the old strain quickly gets wiped out.
It is of course possible for another yet more infectious strain to arise in the future, but I’m not attempting to model that. It would need to happen relatively soon to have much impact, unless it escaped from the vaccines.
(yes I live in a cave where I don’t think the new strain is being identified) Why does the old strain disappear? And shouldn’t we expect yet another strain after very many people get infected? (Of course, it could go whichever way with it spreading faster or not.)
By assumption here the new strain is more infectious than the old strain, either 50% or 65% more (in the sheet you can set it to anything you like). I am highly confident it’s near that range. The control system reacts to the new strain’s rise, and the old strain quickly gets wiped out.
It is of course possible for another yet more infectious strain to arise in the future, but I’m not attempting to model that. It would need to happen relatively soon to have much impact, unless it escaped from the vaccines.
Thank you, it will be interesting.