Do a bayesian update.
Additional to the prior, you need:
(A) The probability that you will heal anyway
(B) The probability that you will heal if sabadil works
I have done the math for A=0,5 ; B=0,75 : The result is an update from 1/10^6 to 1,5 * 1/10^6
For A=1/1000 and B=1 the result is 0.000999
The math is explained here: http://lesswrong.com/lw/2b0/bayes_theorem_illustrated_my_way
Do a bayesian update.
Additional to the prior, you need:
(A) The probability that you will heal anyway
(B) The probability that you will heal if sabadil works
I have done the math for A=0,5 ; B=0,75 : The result is an update from 1/10^6 to 1,5 * 1/10^6
For A=1/1000 and B=1 the result is 0.000999
The math is explained here: http://lesswrong.com/lw/2b0/bayes_theorem_illustrated_my_way