Note: I also know very little about this. Few thoughts on your guesses (and my corresponding credences):
--It seems pretty likely that it will be for humans (something that works for mices wouldn’t be impressive enough for an announcement). In last year’s white paper they were already inserting electrode arrays in the brain. But maybe you mean something that lives inside the brain independently? (90%)
--If by “significative damage” you mean “not altering basic human capabilities” then it sounds plausible. From the white paper they seem to focus on damage to “the blood-brain barrier” and the “brain’s inflammatory response to foreign objects”. My intuition is that the brain would react pretty strongly to something inside it for 10 years though. (20%)
--Other BCI companies have done similar demo-s, so given presentation is long this might happen at some point. But Neuralink might also want to show they’re different from mainstream companies. (35%)
--Seems plausible. Assigning lower credence because really specific. (15%)
I was thinking they’ll probably show off a monkey with the device doing something. Last year they were talking about how they were working on getting it safe enough to put in humans without degrading quickly and/or causing damage IIRC; thus I’d be surprised if they already have it in a human, surely there hasn’t been enough time to test its safety… IDK. Your credences seem reasonable.
Gosh, I know very little about this. But to get the ball rolling, I’ll make some guesses:
--The device will be implanted in a human (20%)
--The device will be allegedly capable of functioning for more than ten years in the brain without causing any significant damage (30%)
--The demonstration will involve controlling a mouse/cursor of some sort on a screen (30%)
--The demonstration will involve controlling a virtual character of some sort (30%)
Note: I also know very little about this. Few thoughts on your guesses (and my corresponding credences):
--It seems pretty likely that it will be for humans (something that works for mices wouldn’t be impressive enough for an announcement). In last year’s white paper they were already inserting electrode arrays in the brain. But maybe you mean something that lives inside the brain independently? (90%)
--If by “significative damage” you mean “not altering basic human capabilities” then it sounds plausible. From the white paper they seem to focus on damage to “the blood-brain barrier” and the “brain’s inflammatory response to foreign objects”. My intuition is that the brain would react pretty strongly to something inside it for 10 years though. (20%)
--Other BCI companies have done similar demo-s, so given presentation is long this might happen at some point. But Neuralink might also want to show they’re different from mainstream companies. (35%)
--Seems plausible. Assigning lower credence because really specific. (15%)
I was thinking they’ll probably show off a monkey with the device doing something. Last year they were talking about how they were working on getting it safe enough to put in humans without degrading quickly and/or causing damage IIRC; thus I’d be surprised if they already have it in a human, surely there hasn’t been enough time to test its safety… IDK. Your credences seem reasonable.