If you pose someone the Monty Hall Problem, and their response is “It doesn’t matter whether I switch doors or not! They’re going to move the prize so that I don’t end up getting it anyway!”
Do you think they’ve understood the point of the exercise?
As far as I recall, in the actual game show Monty Hall was never required to open a ‘goat’ door and offer you the switch. In fact, he did so almost exactly often enough to make switching vs. not switching a neutral proposition. I’m not exactly sure why, but this feels very relevant to the point of this post.
If you pose someone the Monty Hall Problem, and their response is “It doesn’t matter whether I switch doors or not! They’re going to move the prize so that I don’t end up getting it anyway!” Do you think they’ve understood the point of the exercise?
As far as I recall, in the actual game show Monty Hall was never required to open a ‘goat’ door and offer you the switch. In fact, he did so almost exactly often enough to make switching vs. not switching a neutral proposition. I’m not exactly sure why, but this feels very relevant to the point of this post.
To make it look more fair than it actually is.