At least one clique member submits a non-CloneBot (by accident or design): 60%.
At least one clique member fails to submit anything: 60%. (I think this happened? I don’t remember where someone said that though.)
At least one bot tries to simulate me after the showdown and doesn’t get disqualified: 10%.
At least one bot tries to simulate me after the showdown and succeeds: 5%.
At least one CloneBot manages to act out: 5%.
I get disqualified: 5%.
Only two where I was on the wrong side of 50%, but giving 5% to a CloneBot acting out is embarrassing. I think if I’d said 10% I’d feel okay with it. I’m curious whether, if we started at round 90, the “after the showdown” predictions would have gone the other way; but I think I did try to price in the chance of never making it there when I made them, so. (Were there even any simulators in the clique, other than EarlyBirdMimicBot which wouldn’t have tried against any of us?)
Thanks for running this! I’m a little disappointed the clique didn’t make it to round 90, so that my custom code never ran, but so it goes.
Marking my predictions:
I win: 20%.A CloneBot wins: 75%.
At least one clique member submits a non-CloneBot (by accident or design): 60%.At least one clique member fails to submit anything: 60%. (I think this happened? I don’t remember where someone said that though.)
At least one bot tries to simulate me after the showdown and doesn’t get disqualified: 10%.At least one bot tries to simulate me after the showdown and succeeds: 5%.At least one CloneBot manages to act out: 5%.
I get disqualified: 5%.Only two where I was on the wrong side of 50%, but giving 5% to a CloneBot acting out is embarrassing. I think if I’d said 10% I’d feel okay with it. I’m curious whether, if we started at round 90, the “after the showdown” predictions would have gone the other way; but I think I did try to price in the chance of never making it there when I made them, so. (Were there even any simulators in the clique, other than EarlyBirdMimicBot which wouldn’t have tried against any of us?)
Yes. One clique member failed to submit anything.