I think A is solved, though I wouldn’t exactly phrase it like that, more like counterfactuals make sense because they are what they are and knowledge works the way it does.
Zack seems to be making a claim to B, but I’m not expert enough in decision theory to say much about it.
I don’t think they’re really at odds. Zack’s analysis cuts off at a point where the circularity exists below it. There’s still the standard epistemic circularity that exists whenever you try to ground out any proposition, counterfactual or not, but there’s a level of abstraction where you can remove the seeming circularity by shoving it lower or deeper into the reduction of the proposition towards grounding out in some experience.
Another way to put this is that we can choose what to be pragmatic about. Zack’s analysis choosing to be pragmatic about counterfactuals at the level of making decisions, and this allows removing the circularity up to the purpose of making a decision. If we want to be pragmatic about, say, accurately predicting what we will observe about the world, then there’s still some weird circularity in counterfactuals to be addressed if we try to ask questions like “why these counterfactuals rather than others?” or “why can we formulate counterfactuals at all?”.
Also I guess I should be clear that there’s no circularity outside the map. Circularity is entirely a feature of our models of reality rather than reality itself. That’s way, for example, the analysis on epistemic circularity I offer is that we can ground things out in purpose and thus the circularity was actually an illusion of trying to ground truth in itself rather than experience.
I’m not sure I’ve made this point very clearly elsewhere before, so sorry if that’s a bit confusing. The point is that circularity is a feature of the relative rather than the absolute, so circularity exists in the map but not the territory. We only get circularity by introducing abstractions that can allow things in the map to depend on each other rather than the territory.
I wouldn’t be surprised if other concepts such as probability were circular in the same way as counterfactuals, although I feel that this is more than just a special case of epistemic circularity. Like I agree that we can only reason starting from where we are—rather than from the view from nowhere—but counterfactuals feel different because they are such a fundamental concept that appears everywhere. As an example, our understanding of chairs doesn’t seem circular in quite the same sense. That said, I’d love to see someone explore this line of thought.
Zack’s analysis cuts off at a point where the circularity exists below it
I could be wrong, but I suspect Zack would disagree with the notion that there is a circularity below it involving counterfactuals. I wouldn’t be surprised though if Zack acknowledge a circularity not involving counterfactuals.
Also I guess I should be clear that there’s no circularity outside the map. Circularity is entirely a feature of our models of reality rather than reality itself
Agreed. That said, I don’t think counterfactuals are in the territory. I think I said before that they were in the map, although I’m now leaning away from that characterisation as I feel that they are more of a fundamental category that we use to draw the map.
Agreed. That said, I don’t think counterfactuals are in the territory. I think I said before that they were in the map, although I’m now leaning away from that characterisation as I feel that they are more of a fundamental category that we use to draw the map.
Yes, I think there is something interesting going on where human brains seem to operate in a way that makes counterfactuals natural. I actually don’t think there’s anything special about counterfactuals, though, just that the human brain is designed such that thoughts are not strongly tethered to sensory input vs. “memory” (internally generated experience), but that’s perhaps only subtly different than saying counterfactuals rather than something powering them is a fundamental feature of how our minds work.
I think A is solved, though I wouldn’t exactly phrase it like that, more like counterfactuals make sense because they are what they are and knowledge works the way it does.
Zack seems to be making a claim to B, but I’m not expert enough in decision theory to say much about it.
Sorry, when you say A is solved, you’re claiming that the circularity is known to be true, right?
Zack seems to be claiming that Bayesian Networks both draw out the implications and show that the circularity is false.
So unless I’m misunderstanding you, your answer seems to be at odds with Zack.
I don’t think they’re really at odds. Zack’s analysis cuts off at a point where the circularity exists below it. There’s still the standard epistemic circularity that exists whenever you try to ground out any proposition, counterfactual or not, but there’s a level of abstraction where you can remove the seeming circularity by shoving it lower or deeper into the reduction of the proposition towards grounding out in some experience.
Another way to put this is that we can choose what to be pragmatic about. Zack’s analysis choosing to be pragmatic about counterfactuals at the level of making decisions, and this allows removing the circularity up to the purpose of making a decision. If we want to be pragmatic about, say, accurately predicting what we will observe about the world, then there’s still some weird circularity in counterfactuals to be addressed if we try to ask questions like “why these counterfactuals rather than others?” or “why can we formulate counterfactuals at all?”.
Also I guess I should be clear that there’s no circularity outside the map. Circularity is entirely a feature of our models of reality rather than reality itself. That’s way, for example, the analysis on epistemic circularity I offer is that we can ground things out in purpose and thus the circularity was actually an illusion of trying to ground truth in itself rather than experience.
I’m not sure I’ve made this point very clearly elsewhere before, so sorry if that’s a bit confusing. The point is that circularity is a feature of the relative rather than the absolute, so circularity exists in the map but not the territory. We only get circularity by introducing abstractions that can allow things in the map to depend on each other rather than the territory.
I wouldn’t be surprised if other concepts such as probability were circular in the same way as counterfactuals, although I feel that this is more than just a special case of epistemic circularity. Like I agree that we can only reason starting from where we are—rather than from the view from nowhere—but counterfactuals feel different because they are such a fundamental concept that appears everywhere. As an example, our understanding of chairs doesn’t seem circular in quite the same sense. That said, I’d love to see someone explore this line of thought.
I could be wrong, but I suspect Zack would disagree with the notion that there is a circularity below it involving counterfactuals. I wouldn’t be surprised though if Zack acknowledge a circularity not involving counterfactuals.
Agreed. That said, I don’t think counterfactuals are in the territory. I think I said before that they were in the map, although I’m now leaning away from that characterisation as I feel that they are more of a fundamental category that we use to draw the map.
Yes, I think there is something interesting going on where human brains seem to operate in a way that makes counterfactuals natural. I actually don’t think there’s anything special about counterfactuals, though, just that the human brain is designed such that thoughts are not strongly tethered to sensory input vs. “memory” (internally generated experience), but that’s perhaps only subtly different than saying counterfactuals rather than something powering them is a fundamental feature of how our minds work.