The third level of explanations requires a complete overhaul of our world model and includes a large set of fantastic hypothesis: alien starships, interdimensional beings, glitches in the matrix, projections from the collective unconsciousness, Boltzmann brain’s experiences etc.
Most of these are just not good explanations. In the sense that even if we were in a glitchy matrix, why would the glitch look like that. The boltzman brain hypothesis fails to assign any more probability to some observations than others, so always predicts random noise. Aliens or interdimensional beings are so powerful that they could do pretty much whatever they like to us. Scenarios where an alien civilization tries to avoid indicating its presence in any way, but some accident strands a few aliens in a malfunctioning spacecraft on earth, or a few rebels decide to show up on camera and then vanish feel contrived.
Even if I knew for certain that interdimensional beings were meddling in the affairs of earthlings, I would still suspect that that particular video had a level 1 explanation.
The probability of anything to do with aliens shouldn’t be updated significantly on evidence like this. If you think that alien nuts will periodically drag up the most convincing video they can find, you should probably be adjusting P(aliens) down slightly. On the grounds that there will always be dead flies on camera lenses, but if any good evidence did exist, the alien nuts would share that instead.
The most interesting explanations are those that explain how high capabilities of observed objects could be combined with low intelligence. ( in Nimitz case, fly inside a camera explanation does not work, as the object was observed through three independent channels : visual by eyes, radar on the ship and infrared camera on a plane).
There are several ideas how UAP high capabilities could be combined with low intelligence:
they are animals which use unknown type of matter. Like whales.
Alien civilization has crashed but some robots remain.
Alien superintelligence is locked on a stupid goal.
They just don’t care. They have intelligence but don’t use it to hide. We don’t hide from ants.
Diluted Boltzmann brains or dust theory—there is only a very small level of randomness, and the world looks almost normal. Maybe longer explanation is needed, and it is in the article.
Most of these are just not good explanations. In the sense that even if we were in a glitchy matrix, why would the glitch look like that. The boltzman brain hypothesis fails to assign any more probability to some observations than others, so always predicts random noise. Aliens or interdimensional beings are so powerful that they could do pretty much whatever they like to us. Scenarios where an alien civilization tries to avoid indicating its presence in any way, but some accident strands a few aliens in a malfunctioning spacecraft on earth, or a few rebels decide to show up on camera and then vanish feel contrived.
Even if I knew for certain that interdimensional beings were meddling in the affairs of earthlings, I would still suspect that that particular video had a level 1 explanation.
The probability of anything to do with aliens shouldn’t be updated significantly on evidence like this. If you think that alien nuts will periodically drag up the most convincing video they can find, you should probably be adjusting P(aliens) down slightly. On the grounds that there will always be dead flies on camera lenses, but if any good evidence did exist, the alien nuts would share that instead.
The most interesting explanations are those that explain how high capabilities of observed objects could be combined with low intelligence. ( in Nimitz case, fly inside a camera explanation does not work, as the object was observed through three independent channels : visual by eyes, radar on the ship and infrared camera on a plane). There are several ideas how UAP high capabilities could be combined with low intelligence:
they are animals which use unknown type of matter. Like whales.
Alien civilization has crashed but some robots remain.
Alien superintelligence is locked on a stupid goal.
They just don’t care. They have intelligence but don’t use it to hide. We don’t hide from ants.
Diluted Boltzmann brains or dust theory—there is only a very small level of randomness, and the world looks almost normal. Maybe longer explanation is needed, and it is in the article.