Why not just phrase it in terms of utility? “Justification” can mean too many different things.
Seeing a black swan diminishes (and for certain applications, destroys) the usefulness of the belief that all swans are white. This seems a lot simpler.
Putting it in terms of beliefs paying rent in anticipated experiences, the belief “all swans are white” told me to anticipate that if I knew there was a black animal perched on my shoulder it could not be a swan. Now that belief isn’t as reliable of a guidepost. If black swans are really rare I could probably get by with it for most applications and still use it to win at life most of the time, but in some cases it will steer me wrong—that is, cause me to lose.
So can’t this all be better phrased in more established LW terms?
Why not just phrase it in terms of utility? “Justification” can mean too many different things.
Seeing a black swan diminishes (and for certain applications, destroys) the usefulness of the belief that all swans are white. This seems a lot simpler.
Putting it in terms of beliefs paying rent in anticipated experiences, the belief “all swans are white” told me to anticipate that if I knew there was a black animal perched on my shoulder it could not be a swan. Now that belief isn’t as reliable of a guidepost. If black swans are really rare I could probably get by with it for most applications and still use it to win at life most of the time, but in some cases it will steer me wrong—that is, cause me to lose.
So can’t this all be better phrased in more established LW terms?
I think you’ve just reinvented pragmatism.
ETA: Ugh, that Wikipedia page is remarkably uninformative… anyone have a better link?