Interesting post, and I’m sure “not having thought of it” helps explain the recency of vehicular attacks (though see the comment from /r/CronoDAS questioning the premise that they are as recent as they may seem).
Another factor: Other attractive methods, previously easy, are now harder—lowering the opportunity cost of a vehicular attack. For example, increased surveillance has made carefully coordinated attacks harder. And perhaps stricter regulations have made it harder to obtain bomb-making materials or disease agents.
This also helps to explain apparent geographical distribution of vehicle attacks: more common in Europe and Canada than the United States, especially per capita. Alternative ways to kill many people, like with a gun, are much easier in the US.
Yet another explanation: Perhaps terrorist behavior doesn’t appear to maximize damage or terror is that much terrorism is not intended to do so. My favorite piece arguing this is from Gwern:
Interesting post, and I’m sure “not having thought of it” helps explain the recency of vehicular attacks (though see the comment from /r/CronoDAS questioning the premise that they are as recent as they may seem).
Another factor: Other attractive methods, previously easy, are now harder—lowering the opportunity cost of a vehicular attack. For example, increased surveillance has made carefully coordinated attacks harder. And perhaps stricter regulations have made it harder to obtain bomb-making materials or disease agents.
This also helps to explain apparent geographical distribution of vehicle attacks: more common in Europe and Canada than the United States, especially per capita. Alternative ways to kill many people, like with a gun, are much easier in the US.
Yet another explanation: Perhaps terrorist behavior doesn’t appear to maximize damage or terror is that much terrorism is not intended to do so. My favorite piece arguing this is from Gwern:
Terrorism is not about Terror
Gwern’s 2009 LessWrong post on this topic