In the case of COVID, this led me to think that there will not be that much mortality in most rich countries, but only due to drastic measures.
The rest of the discussion may also be of interest; e.g. note his comment that “in economics, I think we often err on the other side—people fully incorporate the future in many models.”
An economist friend said in a discussion about sleepwalk bias 9 March:
The rest of the discussion may also be of interest; e.g. note his comment that “in economics, I think we often err on the other side—people fully incorporate the future in many models.”