We were taught bayes in the form of predictive values, but this was pretty cursory. Challenging the medical professors’ competence publicly isn’t a smart move careerwise, unless they happen to be exceptionally rational and principled, unfortunately. There’s a time to shut up and multiply, and a time to bend to the will of the elders :)
One day when I was a junior medical student, a very important Boston surgeon visited the school and delivered a great treatise on a large number of patients who had undergone successful operations for vascular reconstruction.
At the end of the lecture, a young student at the back of the room timidly asked, “Do you have any controls?” Well, the great surgeon drew himself up to his full height, hit the desk, and said, “Do you mean did I not operate on half the patients?” The hall grew very quiet then. The voice at the back of the room very hesitantly replied, “Yes, that’s what I had in mind.” Then the visitor’s fist really came down as he thundered, “Of course not. That would have doomed half of them to their death.
”God, it was quiet then, and one could scarcely hear the small voice ask, “Which half?”
Yep :) You are definetely right career wise. Problem for me was the 200 other people who will absorb completely wrong idea of how the mind works if I wont say anything. Primum non nocere.
But yeah, this was 4 years ago anyway...just wanted to mention it as an anecdote of bad general reasoning and biases :)
We were taught bayes in the form of predictive values, but this was pretty cursory. Challenging the medical professors’ competence publicly isn’t a smart move careerwise, unless they happen to be exceptionally rational and principled, unfortunately. There’s a time to shut up and multiply, and a time to bend to the will of the elders :)
Reminds me of:
Yep :) You are definetely right career wise. Problem for me was the 200 other people who will absorb completely wrong idea of how the mind works if I wont say anything. Primum non nocere.
But yeah, this was 4 years ago anyway...just wanted to mention it as an anecdote of bad general reasoning and biases :)