It seems like the most straightforward simple fix is for everyone to guess simultaneously. Then people can’t just grab big ranges because they are big. E.g. the player who guesses 49 in your example would have to have actually had a lower estimate for the value rather than merely cutting you off at the knees. I haven’t studied in depth but I think the incentives (if each person is trying to account what the others, N-layers deep) are to just guess your true prediction.
I suspect that the incentive is far from that; instead, the strategic response is to randomize somewhat, so that you expect to land in a relatively unclaimed region.
However, this strategy is counter-intuitive enough that humans may just be honest instead, relying on differences in beliefs to inject some randomization for you.
It seems like the most straightforward simple fix is for everyone to guess simultaneously. Then people can’t just grab big ranges because they are big. E.g. the player who guesses 49 in your example would have to have actually had a lower estimate for the value rather than merely cutting you off at the knees. I haven’t studied in depth but I think the incentives (if each person is trying to account what the others, N-layers deep) are to just guess your true prediction.
I suspect that the incentive is far from that; instead, the strategic response is to randomize somewhat, so that you expect to land in a relatively unclaimed region.
However, this strategy is counter-intuitive enough that humans may just be honest instead, relying on differences in beliefs to inject some randomization for you.