Performing Monte-Carlo calculations using something like Guesstimate, ideally on the same problem as a previous cost-benefit analysis.
Calibration training
Over unknown variables, such as “Which person was born earlier”, or “Which country has a bigger population”
By forecasting events on different timescales, ranging from a day to a month (maybe more (a decade would be great), but the exam format probably doesn’t allow that)
Being presented a plan/system/technology/mathematical proof and trying to find reasons why it doesn’t/won’t work
Conducting simple cost-benefit analyses (mostly using the four basic arithmetic operations + dimensional analysis), with a time-limit of 5/30/60 minutes
This includes knowledge about expected value (and it’s possible shortcomings)
This maybe even includes knowledge about the expected value of perfect information
Performing Monte-Carlo calculations using something like Guesstimate, ideally on the same problem as a previous cost-benefit analysis.
Calibration training
Over unknown variables, such as “Which person was born earlier”, or “Which country has a bigger population”
By forecasting events on different timescales, ranging from a day to a month (maybe more (a decade would be great), but the exam format probably doesn’t allow that)