I think this breaks because it results in people upvoting based on the title. I recall some study about how people did things they predicted they would do with higher than like 60% chance almost 95% of the time (numbers made up, think I remember direction/order of magnitude of effect size roughly correctly, don’t know if it survived the replication crises)
That’s potentially a good point! But it doesn’t say how the causality works. Maybe the prediction affects the outcome or maybe they’re just bad at predicting / modelling themselves.
I think this breaks because it results in people upvoting based on the title. I recall some study about how people did things they predicted they would do with higher than like 60% chance almost 95% of the time (numbers made up, think I remember direction/order of magnitude of effect size roughly correctly, don’t know if it survived the replication crises)
That’s potentially a good point! But it doesn’t say how the causality works. Maybe the prediction affects the outcome or maybe they’re just bad at predicting / modelling themselves.