“You should never bet against anything in science at odds of more than about 10^12 to 1 against.”
Ernest Rutherford
Alas, as nice a quote as it is, it seems to be bogus:
previous discussion: http://lesswrong.com/lw/i7t/rationality_quotes_august_2013/9ljz
WP discussion to which I’ve added my failed attempts to find the original: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talk:Ernest_Rutherford#Odds_of_1012_to_1.
The neutrino anomaly was about 5*10^6 to 1 against. Not quite 10^12 to 1, but I still think it shows that odds that small aren’t what they’re cracked up to be.
“You should never bet against anything in science at odds of more than about 10^12 to 1 against.”
Ernest Rutherford
Alas, as nice a quote as it is, it seems to be bogus:
previous discussion: http://lesswrong.com/lw/i7t/rationality_quotes_august_2013/9ljz
WP discussion to which I’ve added my failed attempts to find the original: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talk:Ernest_Rutherford#Odds_of_1012_to_1.
The neutrino anomaly was about 5*10^6 to 1 against. Not quite 10^12 to 1, but I still think it shows that odds that small aren’t what they’re cracked up to be.