Because the economy is shrinking and modern technologies are not coming from the world outside Plutonia, the conventional Plutonian army is unable to win the real war. Thus, in all “gray zone” conflicts, where Plutonia used to won, now the Plutonian neighbors may try to get their territories back. The only way to not lose is to use (limitedly) nuclear weapons.
Does Plutonia use the weapons within its sovereign territory against its own people or outside its own territory against an enemy state? When you say “use” do you mean actually detonating them or just threatening to do so?
When I say use, I mean actually detonating—not necessarily destroying a big city, but initially maybe just something small. Within the territory is possible, though I think outside is more realistic (I think the army will be eventually to weak to fight the external enemies with modern technology, but will always be able to fight unarmed citizens).
If Plutonia detonates its weapons outside its own territory offensively then the target is either nuclear-armed or non-nuclear armed.
If the target is nuclear-armed then the target state can be expected to retaliate with overwhelming force, thus removing the Plutonian government from power.
If the target is not nuclear-armed then nuclear armed states may or may not retaliate with overwhelming force. Exactly what happens here depends on what country Plutonia really is[1], who the target of the nuclear strike is and other geopolitical conditions.
Either way, the danger Plutonia poses to the rest of the world is eliminated before things can snowball.
How the world would respond to a nuclear first strike by Russia is very different from a nuclear first strike by North Korea is very different from a nuclear first strike by Iran.
The problem is that retaliation is not immediate (missiles takes few hours to reach the goal). For example, Plutonia can demonstratively destroy one object and declare that any attempt of retaliation will be retaliated in double. As soon as other country launches N missiles, Plutonia launches 2 N.
Does Plutonia use the weapons within its sovereign territory against its own people or outside its own territory against an enemy state? When you say “use” do you mean actually detonating them or just threatening to do so?
When I say use, I mean actually detonating—not necessarily destroying a big city, but initially maybe just something small.
Within the territory is possible, though I think outside is more realistic (I think the army will be eventually to weak to fight the external enemies with modern technology, but will always be able to fight unarmed citizens).
If Plutonia detonates its weapons outside its own territory offensively then the target is either nuclear-armed or non-nuclear armed.
If the target is nuclear-armed then the target state can be expected to retaliate with overwhelming force, thus removing the Plutonian government from power.
If the target is not nuclear-armed then nuclear armed states may or may not retaliate with overwhelming force. Exactly what happens here depends on what country Plutonia really is[1], who the target of the nuclear strike is and other geopolitical conditions.
Either way, the danger Plutonia poses to the rest of the world is eliminated before things can snowball.
How the world would respond to a nuclear first strike by Russia is very different from a nuclear first strike by North Korea is very different from a nuclear first strike by Iran.
The problem is that retaliation is not immediate (missiles takes few hours to reach the goal). For example, Plutonia can demonstratively destroy one object and declare that any attempt of retaliation will be retaliated in double. As soon as other country launches N missiles, Plutonia launches 2 N.