The way you described the chess/marriage/etc market, it’s a bit vulnerable. Imagine there is a move that appears to be a very strong one, but with a small possibility of a devastating countermove that is costly for market participants to analyze. There is an incentive to bet on it—if the countermove exists, hopefully somebody will discover it, heavily bet against the move, and cause the price to drop enough that it is not taken, and the bets are refunded. If no countermove exists, the bet is a good one, and is profitable. But if nobody bothers to check for the countermove, and it exists, everybody (those who bet on the move, and the decision makers who made the move) are in trouble, but it could still be the case that no bettors have enough incentive to check for countermove (if it exists, they do not derive any benefit from the significant mispricing of the move, as you just refund the bets).