Boston has had community spread for almost 3 months. Disease lasts maybe 4 weeks, meaning ~3 cycles of people have already had it and recovered. So 4x as many immune as currently infected sounds like about what you’d expect from that without anything special boosting immunity.
10% actually sounds low to me. Based on my heuristic of assuming the real # is 10x the official #, I would’ve put it at 20% currently. The study was conducted over a few weeks, meaning significantly fewer were infected or recovered when it started, and only tested people from a few neighborhoods which may or may not be representative of the whole county, so the real number is probably higher than 10%, but still seems like it would be in line with, or lower than, my naive guess.
Boston has had community spread for almost 3 months. Disease lasts maybe 4 weeks, meaning ~3 cycles of people have already had it and recovered. So 4x as many immune as currently infected sounds like about what you’d expect from that without anything special boosting immunity.
10% actually sounds low to me. Based on my heuristic of assuming the real # is 10x the official #, I would’ve put it at 20% currently. The study was conducted over a few weeks, meaning significantly fewer were infected or recovered when it started, and only tested people from a few neighborhoods which may or may not be representative of the whole county, so the real number is probably higher than 10%, but still seems like it would be in line with, or lower than, my naive guess.