My point wasn’t really about making a statement about what the baseline likelihood is, just that baseline likelihood vs benefit of marginal work are two separate questions, and more generally that the question of self-deceit is one that applies to many different sub-problems (self-deceive here but not there).
But yeah, I don’t doubt that you’re right about what the true baseline is. And in general the market sounds quite inefficient. I myself am going through that now as a programmer with six years of experience struggling to find a job.
Fair enough. I’ve never understood how “self-deceit” was supposed to work, though. Self—delusion is simple enough—you believe something that isn’t true. That’s probably universal. But self-deceit seems to require you to believe something that you don’t believe, and I don’t understand why you expect yourself to fall for it.
My point wasn’t really about making a statement about what the baseline likelihood is, just that baseline likelihood vs benefit of marginal work are two separate questions, and more generally that the question of self-deceit is one that applies to many different sub-problems (self-deceive here but not there).
But yeah, I don’t doubt that you’re right about what the true baseline is. And in general the market sounds quite inefficient. I myself am going through that now as a programmer with six years of experience struggling to find a job.
Fair enough. I’ve never understood how “self-deceit” was supposed to work, though. Self—delusion is simple enough—you believe something that isn’t true. That’s probably universal. But self-deceit seems to require you to believe something that you don’t believe, and I don’t understand why you expect yourself to fall for it.