One point you neglect that would be especially relevant in the AGI scenario is leakiness of accumulated advantage. When the advantage is tech, the leaks take the pretty concrete form of copying the tech. But there’s also a sense that in a globalized world, undeveloped nations will often grow faster, catching up to the more prosperous nations.
Leakiness probably explains why Britain was never strong enough to conquer Europe despite having the Industrial Revolution first.
One point you neglect that would be especially relevant in the AGI scenario is leakiness of accumulated advantage. When the advantage is tech, the leaks take the pretty concrete form of copying the tech. But there’s also a sense that in a globalized world, undeveloped nations will often grow faster, catching up to the more prosperous nations.
Leakiness probably explains why Britain was never strong enough to conquer Europe despite having the Industrial Revolution first.