What if the mugger says he will give you a single moment of pleasure that is 3^^^3 times more intense than a standard good experience? Wouldn’t the leverage penalty not apply and thus make the probability of the mugger telling the truth much higher?
I think the real reason the mugger shouldn’t be given money is that people are more likely to be able to attain 3^^^3 utils by donating the five dollars to an existential risk-reducing charity. Even though the current universe presumably couldn’t support 3^^^3 utils, there is a chance of being able to create or travel to vast numbers of other universes, and I think this chance is greater than the chance of the mugger being honest.
Am I missing something? These points seem too obvious to miss, so I’m assigning a fairly large probability to me either being confused or that these were already mentioned.
I don’t think you can give me a moment of pleasure that intense without using 3^^^3 worth of atoms on which to run my brain, and I think the leverage penalty still applies then. You definitely can’t give me a moment of worthwhile happiness that intense without 3^^^3 units of background computation.
The article said the leverage penalty “[penalizes] hypotheses that let you affect a large number of people, in proportion to the number of people affected.” If this is all the leverage penalty does, then it doesn’t matter if it takes 3^^^3 atoms or units of computation, because atoms and computations aren’t people.
That said, the article doesn’t precisely define what the leverage penalty is, so there could be something I’m missing. So, what exactly is the leverage penalty? Does it penalize how many units of computation, rather than people, you can affect? This sounds much less arbitrary than the vague definition of “person” and sounds much easier to define: simply divide the prior of a hypothesis by the number of bits flipped by your actions in it and then normalize.
can even strip out the part about agents and carry out the reasoning on pure causal nodes; the chance of a randomly selected causal node being in a unique100 position on a causal graph with respect to 3↑↑↑3 other nodes ought to be at most 100/3↑↑↑3 for finite causal graphs.
What if the mugger says he will give you a single moment of pleasure that is 3^^^3 times more intense than a standard good experience? Wouldn’t the leverage penalty not apply and thus make the probability of the mugger telling the truth much higher?
I think the real reason the mugger shouldn’t be given money is that people are more likely to be able to attain 3^^^3 utils by donating the five dollars to an existential risk-reducing charity. Even though the current universe presumably couldn’t support 3^^^3 utils, there is a chance of being able to create or travel to vast numbers of other universes, and I think this chance is greater than the chance of the mugger being honest.
Am I missing something? These points seem too obvious to miss, so I’m assigning a fairly large probability to me either being confused or that these were already mentioned.
I don’t think you can give me a moment of pleasure that intense without using 3^^^3 worth of atoms on which to run my brain, and I think the leverage penalty still applies then. You definitely can’t give me a moment of worthwhile happiness that intense without 3^^^3 units of background computation.
The article said the leverage penalty “[penalizes] hypotheses that let you affect a large number of people, in proportion to the number of people affected.” If this is all the leverage penalty does, then it doesn’t matter if it takes 3^^^3 atoms or units of computation, because atoms and computations aren’t people.
That said, the article doesn’t precisely define what the leverage penalty is, so there could be something I’m missing. So, what exactly is the leverage penalty? Does it penalize how many units of computation, rather than people, you can affect? This sounds much less arbitrary than the vague definition of “person” and sounds much easier to define: simply divide the prior of a hypothesis by the number of bits flipped by your actions in it and then normalize.
You’re absolutely right. I’m not sure how I missed or forgot about reading that.