I can’t imagine that out of 10^22 stars, only one would have life around it because of that. MAD should have let more worlds through than that. There would have to be worlds that got global governments before weapons capable of MAD. And if global governments (or other things that allow worlds to avoid our situations like ours or worse) were so rare, why would the one world that managed to slip through the filter (us) be even rarer, and have managed to survive to 2013 with two antagonistic superpowers with nukes, and no obvious stroke of luck preventing them from killing everyone?
Nuclear warfare MAD is one thing, but interplanetary and interestellar civilizations also suffer from MAD problems, arguably even moreso due to light-speed time lag of communications.
If nuclear war is the Great Filter it may take a while. One could conceive for example if it takes on the order generally of a few hundred years to get substantially off-planet from when one develops nukes (note that this requires among other details no near Singularity) then it starts looking a lot more plausible. Similarly, global governments may not be stable in that time frame.
Note also that there’s been discussion here of how much the age of the planets could matter, and whether planets where intelligent life arises earlier are more likely to wipe themselves out (from easier access to uranium 235), and the consensus seemed to be that this was not a significant enough different to be a major part of the filter. See discussion here when I last brought it up.
Possibly an explanation for the great filter, but if it only applies after we move off-planet, then it doesn’t explain why we survived our own cold war on our own planet (and means we are still at risk of hitting the great filter ourselves, and not a rare technological civilization among the stars like we thought.)
then it doesn’t explain why we survived our own cold war on our own planet
We haven’t gotten strongly off planet yet. We survived our first encounter with nuclear war, that doesn’t mean that it won’t still happen. Indeed, more groups now have access to nuclear weapons. By many estimates the US currently has close to first strike capability on Russia and China, but that may change as China improves its military. And as technology improves, making nukes becomes easier, not harder.
and means we are still at risk of hitting the great filter ourselves, and not a rare technological civilization among the stars like we thought.
Well, this is essentially just the question of whether the Filter is largely in front of us or largely behind us.
There are chemistries far more threatening to life on earth than nukes. - that could be considered the first success of arms control, the world backed off from chemical weapons after WW1, and it is possible to get to fission via transmutation of stable isotopes, even if quite cumbersome. Fusors or accelerators + thorium, then breeders would work.
There are chemistries far more threatening to life on earth than nukes. - that could be considered the first success of arms control, the world backed off from chemical weapons
Can you expand on why you think chemical weapons would be that threatening? They seem to be much easier to deal with, both in terms of prevention and in terms of total damage done. Most chemicals used in chemical weapons (e.g. sarin and VX) break down fairly fast when exposed to the environment- this is a major reason why so many chemical weapons are designed with binary systems.
Most chemical weapons break down rapidly, yes. That is why those chemicals were used as battlefield weapons—for an army, rending the field of battle impassible for any length of time is a major bug, not a feature.
There are known toxins that are far more persistent, and they could be deployed as WMD far more horrific than very large explosions. None of them have been used, or even proposed as weapons, but this speaks of the restraint of weapon makers, generals and politicians, not the space of what the laws of nature make possible.
I would prefer not to give examples because there is a diffrence between people learning of this while studying in general and providing searchable hits for “How to end the wirld”, but go find a list of poisons by toxicity, and read up on their specific properties. There are /many/ things worse than nukes. Either we are in a timeline surrounded by an void of death or humans can in fact be trusted with the keys of Armageddon.
In order to kill someone with a poison, the poison has to at least touch that person, and many poisons need much more than skin contact to be lethal: they have to be ingested, injected, or inhaled. Explosions tend to expand rapidly. Chemicals, however, tend to sit in one place; you need a way to disperse it. Yes, a handful of botulinium toxin could theoretically kill every human on the planet, but you’d never be able to get it inside every person on the planet.
In other words, [citation needed].
On the other hand, I wouldn’t be surprised if one could kill more people with a few vials of smallpox virus than with a single nuclear weapon...
I agree, what you’re referring to is very nasty stuff, and yes, you could easily kill a lot of people with it. You’ll still have trouble wiping out an area larger than a stadium with it, though. (It’s certainly possible to do though, if you have enough resources. Maybe something involving crop dusting planes, I dunno.)
On the bright side, anyone plotting to use that particular agent to kill people with is probably going to end up killing themselves with it before they manage to get anyone else.
Maybe MAD is the great filter
I can’t imagine that out of 10^22 stars, only one would have life around it because of that. MAD should have let more worlds through than that. There would have to be worlds that got global governments before weapons capable of MAD. And if global governments (or other things that allow worlds to avoid our situations like ours or worse) were so rare, why would the one world that managed to slip through the filter (us) be even rarer, and have managed to survive to 2013 with two antagonistic superpowers with nukes, and no obvious stroke of luck preventing them from killing everyone?
Nuclear warfare MAD is one thing, but interplanetary and interestellar civilizations also suffer from MAD problems, arguably even moreso due to light-speed time lag of communications.
If nuclear war is the Great Filter it may take a while. One could conceive for example if it takes on the order generally of a few hundred years to get substantially off-planet from when one develops nukes (note that this requires among other details no near Singularity) then it starts looking a lot more plausible. Similarly, global governments may not be stable in that time frame.
Note also that there’s been discussion here of how much the age of the planets could matter, and whether planets where intelligent life arises earlier are more likely to wipe themselves out (from easier access to uranium 235), and the consensus seemed to be that this was not a significant enough different to be a major part of the filter. See discussion here when I last brought it up.
Possibly an explanation for the great filter, but if it only applies after we move off-planet, then it doesn’t explain why we survived our own cold war on our own planet (and means we are still at risk of hitting the great filter ourselves, and not a rare technological civilization among the stars like we thought.)
We haven’t gotten strongly off planet yet. We survived our first encounter with nuclear war, that doesn’t mean that it won’t still happen. Indeed, more groups now have access to nuclear weapons. By many estimates the US currently has close to first strike capability on Russia and China, but that may change as China improves its military. And as technology improves, making nukes becomes easier, not harder.
Well, this is essentially just the question of whether the Filter is largely in front of us or largely behind us.
Should there be worlds that don’t have enough radioactives?
There are chemistries far more threatening to life on earth than nukes. - that could be considered the first success of arms control, the world backed off from chemical weapons after WW1, and it is possible to get to fission via transmutation of stable isotopes, even if quite cumbersome. Fusors or accelerators + thorium, then breeders would work.
I’m a little nervous about tech getting to the point where we have home build-a-virus kits.
Can you expand on why you think chemical weapons would be that threatening? They seem to be much easier to deal with, both in terms of prevention and in terms of total damage done. Most chemicals used in chemical weapons (e.g. sarin and VX) break down fairly fast when exposed to the environment- this is a major reason why so many chemical weapons are designed with binary systems.
Most chemical weapons break down rapidly, yes. That is why those chemicals were used as battlefield weapons—for an army, rending the field of battle impassible for any length of time is a major bug, not a feature. There are known toxins that are far more persistent, and they could be deployed as WMD far more horrific than very large explosions. None of them have been used, or even proposed as weapons, but this speaks of the restraint of weapon makers, generals and politicians, not the space of what the laws of nature make possible.
I would prefer not to give examples because there is a diffrence between people learning of this while studying in general and providing searchable hits for “How to end the wirld”, but go find a list of poisons by toxicity, and read up on their specific properties. There are /many/ things worse than nukes. Either we are in a timeline surrounded by an void of death or humans can in fact be trusted with the keys of Armageddon.
In order to kill someone with a poison, the poison has to at least touch that person, and many poisons need much more than skin contact to be lethal: they have to be ingested, injected, or inhaled. Explosions tend to expand rapidly. Chemicals, however, tend to sit in one place; you need a way to disperse it. Yes, a handful of botulinium toxin could theoretically kill every human on the planet, but you’d never be able to get it inside every person on the planet.
In other words, [citation needed].
On the other hand, I wouldn’t be surprised if one could kill more people with a few vials of smallpox virus than with a single nuclear weapon...
209-805-3
I agree, what you’re referring to is very nasty stuff, and yes, you could easily kill a lot of people with it. You’ll still have trouble wiping out an area larger than a stadium with it, though. (It’s certainly possible to do though, if you have enough resources. Maybe something involving crop dusting planes, I dunno.)
On the bright side, anyone plotting to use that particular agent to kill people with is probably going to end up killing themselves with it before they manage to get anyone else.
Just for fun: “A Tall Tail” by Charles Stross