Phil: Your estimate rewards precision and penalizes self estimate of precision. A person of a given level of precision should be rewarded for believing their precision to be what it is, not for believing it to be low. If you had self-estimate of precision in the numerator that would negate Nick’s claim, but then you could drop the term from both sides.
Phil: Your estimate rewards precision and penalizes self estimate of precision. A person of a given level of precision should be rewarded for believing their precision to be what it is, not for believing it to be low. If you had self-estimate of precision in the numerator that would negate Nick’s claim, but then you could drop the term from both sides.