That doesn’t look right—if she just flipped H, then THT is also eliminated. So the renormalization should be:
HH: 1⁄2
HT: 0
THH: 1⁄4
THT: 0
TTH: 1⁄4
TTT: 0
Which means the coin doesn’t actually change anything.
In the THT case, on Monday she flips heads. Thus, if she flips heads, and has no way of knowing whether or not it’s monday, she can’t eliminate the possibility of THT.
That doesn’t look right—if she just flipped H, then THT is also eliminated. So the renormalization should be:
HH: 1⁄2
HT: 0
THH: 1⁄4
THT: 0
TTH: 1⁄4
TTT: 0
Which means the coin doesn’t actually change anything.
In the THT case, on Monday she flips heads. Thus, if she flips heads, and has no way of knowing whether or not it’s monday, she can’t eliminate the possibility of THT.