Which crazy stuff happens first seems pretty important to me, in adjudicating between hypotheses. So far, the type of crazy that we’ve been seeing undermines my understanding of Robin’s hypotheses. I’m open to the argument that I simply don’t understand what his hypotheses predict.
FWIW, I think everyone agrees strongly with “which crazy stuff happens first seems pretty important”. Paul was saying that Robin never disagreed with eventual RSI, but just argued that other crazy stuff would happen first. So Robin shouldn’t be criticized on the grounds of disagreeing about the importance of RSI, unless you want to claim that RSI is the first crazy thing that happens (which you don’t seem to believe particularly strongly). But it’s totally fair game to e.g. criticize the prediction that ems will happen before de-novo AI (if you think that now looks very unlikely).
FWIW, I think everyone agrees strongly with “which crazy stuff happens first seems pretty important”. Paul was saying that Robin never disagreed with eventual RSI, but just argued that other crazy stuff would happen first. So Robin shouldn’t be criticized on the grounds of disagreeing about the importance of RSI, unless you want to claim that RSI is the first crazy thing that happens (which you don’t seem to believe particularly strongly). But it’s totally fair game to e.g. criticize the prediction that ems will happen before de-novo AI (if you think that now looks very unlikely).