Great analysis. I am skeptical, though, that a campaign of targeted disruption could permanently derail Moore’s law as long as the economy as a whole remains strong. Markets are really good at responding to dislocations like the destruction of a chip fabrication plant: other facilities would increase production in response to higher prices, unnecessary consumption would be curtailed (think of all those college kids using their fabulously advanced computers to surf Facebook), and future facility development would incorporate the threat of attack into their designs. We might even see companies start to trade special forms of insurance against such attacks.
Great analysis. I am skeptical, though, that a campaign of targeted disruption could permanently derail Moore’s law as long as the economy as a whole remains strong. Markets are really good at responding to dislocations like the destruction of a chip fabrication plant: other facilities would increase production in response to higher prices, unnecessary consumption would be curtailed (think of all those college kids using their fabulously advanced computers to surf Facebook), and future facility development would incorporate the threat of attack into their designs. We might even see companies start to trade special forms of insurance against such attacks.