Thanks, computer-speed deliberation being a lot faster than space-colonisation makes sense. I think any deliberation process that uses biological humans as a crucial input would be a lot slower, though; slow enough that it could well be faster to get started with maximally fast space colonisation. Do you agree with that? (I’m a bit surprised at the claim that colonization takes place over “millenia” at technological maturity; even if the travelling takes millenia, it’s not clear to me why launching something maximally-fast – that you presumably already know how to build, at technological maturity – would take millenia. Though maybe you could argue that millenia-scale travelling time implies millenia-scale variance in your arrival-time, in which case launching decades or centuries after your competitors doesn’t cost you too much expected space?)
If you do agree, I’d infer that your mainline expectation is that we succesfully enforce a worldwide pause before mature space-colonisation; since the OP suggests that biological humans are likely to be a significant input into the deliberation process, and since you think that the beaming-out-info schemes are pretty unlikely.
(I take your point that as far as space-colonisation is concerned; such a pause probably isn’t strictly necessary.)
I agree that biological human deliberation is slow enough that it would need to happen late.
By “millennia” I mostly meant that traveling is slow (+ the social costs of delay are low, I’m estimating like 1/billionth of value per year of delay). I agree that you can start sending fast-enough-to-be-relevant ships around the singularity rather than decades later. I’d guess the main reason speed matters initially is for grabbing resources from nearby stars under whoever-gets-their-first property rights (but that we probably will move away from that regime before colonizing).
I do expect to have strong global coordination prior to space colonization. I don’t actually know if you would pause long enough for deliberation amongst biological humans to be relevant. So on reflection I’m not sure how much time you really have as biological humans. In the OP I’m imagining 10+ years (maybe going up to a generation) but that might just not be realistic.
Probably my single best guess is that some (many?) people would straggle out over years or decades (in the sense that relevant deliberation for controlling what happens with their endowment would take place with biological humans living on earth), but that before that there would be agreements (reached at high speed) to avoid them taking a huge competitive hit by moving slowly.
But my single best guess is not that likely and it seems much more likely that something else will happen (and even that I would conclude that some particular other thing is much more likely if I thought about it more).
Thanks, computer-speed deliberation being a lot faster than space-colonisation makes sense. I think any deliberation process that uses biological humans as a crucial input would be a lot slower, though; slow enough that it could well be faster to get started with maximally fast space colonisation. Do you agree with that? (I’m a bit surprised at the claim that colonization takes place over “millenia” at technological maturity; even if the travelling takes millenia, it’s not clear to me why launching something maximally-fast – that you presumably already know how to build, at technological maturity – would take millenia. Though maybe you could argue that millenia-scale travelling time implies millenia-scale variance in your arrival-time, in which case launching decades or centuries after your competitors doesn’t cost you too much expected space?)
If you do agree, I’d infer that your mainline expectation is that we succesfully enforce a worldwide pause before mature space-colonisation; since the OP suggests that biological humans are likely to be a significant input into the deliberation process, and since you think that the beaming-out-info schemes are pretty unlikely.
(I take your point that as far as space-colonisation is concerned; such a pause probably isn’t strictly necessary.)
I agree that biological human deliberation is slow enough that it would need to happen late.
By “millennia” I mostly meant that traveling is slow (+ the social costs of delay are low, I’m estimating like 1/billionth of value per year of delay). I agree that you can start sending fast-enough-to-be-relevant ships around the singularity rather than decades later. I’d guess the main reason speed matters initially is for grabbing resources from nearby stars under whoever-gets-their-first property rights (but that we probably will move away from that regime before colonizing).
I do expect to have strong global coordination prior to space colonization. I don’t actually know if you would pause long enough for deliberation amongst biological humans to be relevant. So on reflection I’m not sure how much time you really have as biological humans. In the OP I’m imagining 10+ years (maybe going up to a generation) but that might just not be realistic.
Probably my single best guess is that some (many?) people would straggle out over years or decades (in the sense that relevant deliberation for controlling what happens with their endowment would take place with biological humans living on earth), but that before that there would be agreements (reached at high speed) to avoid them taking a huge competitive hit by moving slowly.
But my single best guess is not that likely and it seems much more likely that something else will happen (and even that I would conclude that some particular other thing is much more likely if I thought about it more).