Embryo selection for better scientists. At age 8, Terrence Tao scored 760 on the math SAT, one of only [2?3?] children ever to do this at such an age; he later went on to [have a lot of impact on math]. Studies of similar kids convince researchers that there is a large “aptitude” component to mathematical achievement, even at the high end.7 How rapidly would mathematics or AI progress if we could create hundreds of thousands of Terrence Tao’s?
Though I think agree with the general point that you’re trying to make here (that there’s a large “aptitude” component to the skills relevant to AI research and that embryo selection technology could massively increase the number of people who have high aptitude), I don’t think that it’s so easy to argue:
(a) The math that Terence Tao does is arguably quite remote from AI research.
(b) More broadly, the relevance of mathematical skills to AI research skills is not clear cut.
(c) The SAT tests mathematical aptitude only very obliquely.
(d) Correlation is not causation; my own guess is that high mathematical aptitude as measured by conventional metrics (e.g. mathematical olympiads) is usually necessary but seldom sufficient for the highest levels of success as a mathematical researcher.
(e) Terence Tao is a single example
7 [Benbow etc. on study of exceptional talent; genetics of g; genetics of conscientiousness and openness, pref. w/ any data linking conscientiousness or openness to scientific achievement. Try to frame in a way that highlights hard work type variables, so as to alienate people less.]
Is there really high quality empirical data here? I vaguely remember Carl referencing a study about people at the one in ten thousand level of IQ having more success becoming professors than others, but my impression is that there’s not much research in the way of the genetics of high achieving scientists.
For what it’s worth I think that the main relevant variable here is a tendency (almost involuntary) to work in a highly focused way for protracted amounts of time. This seems to me much more likely to be the limiting factor than g.
I think that one would be on more solid footing both rhetorically and factually just saying something like “capacity for scientific achievement appears to have a large genetic component and it may be possible to select for genes relevant to high scientific achievement by studying the genes of high achieving scientists.”
Though I think agree with the general point that you’re trying to make here (that there’s a large “aptitude” component to the skills relevant to AI research and that embryo selection technology could massively increase the number of people who have high aptitude), I don’t think that it’s so easy to argue:
(a) The math that Terence Tao does is arguably quite remote from AI research.
(b) More broadly, the relevance of mathematical skills to AI research skills is not clear cut.
(c) The SAT tests mathematical aptitude only very obliquely.
(d) Correlation is not causation; my own guess is that high mathematical aptitude as measured by conventional metrics (e.g. mathematical olympiads) is usually necessary but seldom sufficient for the highest levels of success as a mathematical researcher.
(e) Terence Tao is a single example
Is there really high quality empirical data here? I vaguely remember Carl referencing a study about people at the one in ten thousand level of IQ having more success becoming professors than others, but my impression is that there’s not much research in the way of the genetics of high achieving scientists.
For what it’s worth I think that the main relevant variable here is a tendency (almost involuntary) to work in a highly focused way for protracted amounts of time. This seems to me much more likely to be the limiting factor than g.
I think that one would be on more solid footing both rhetorically and factually just saying something like “capacity for scientific achievement appears to have a large genetic component and it may be possible to select for genes relevant to high scientific achievement by studying the genes of high achieving scientists.”