“The Road and Traffic Authority of New South Wales claims that “speeding… is a factor in about 40 percent of road deaths.” Data from the NHTSA puts the number at 30%.”
What does this mean, “is a factor”? If it means “at least one car was speeding,” then it sounds like speeding might reduce the chance of a fatality. Suppose 40% of all drivers speed. Then, if speeding has no effect, the chance that neither driver is speeding is only 36%, which means speeding would be a factor in 64% of fatalities, not 40% or 30%.
Of course, I’ve made some assumptions here. The linked site doesn’t tell us what percentage of drivers speed, and it doesn’t say what “is a factor” means. So, the factoid, as presented, is meaningless.
What does this mean, “is a factor”? If it means “at least one car was speeding,” then it sounds like speeding might reduce the chance of a fatality. Suppose 40% of all drivers speed. Then, if speeding has no effect, the chance that neither driver is speeding is only 36%, which means speeding would be a factor in 64% of fatalities, not 40% or 30%.
Of course, I’ve made some assumptions here. The linked site doesn’t tell us what percentage of drivers speed, and it doesn’t say what “is a factor” means. So, the factoid, as presented, is meaningless.