I read that line differently, though I agree with your remarks. “Superforecasters learning to choose easier questions” was, to me, at least as much about the suite of questions posed to the forecasters as the questions each individual forecaster chooses to answer. If a forecasting firm wants to build a reputation, they could potentially learn how to ask questions that look harder to answer than they really are.
That’s a good point. For some of the questions, that’s a reasonable criticism, but as GJ Inc. becomes increasingly based on client-driven questions, it’s a less viable strategy.
I read that line differently, though I agree with your remarks. “Superforecasters learning to choose easier questions” was, to me, at least as much about the suite of questions posed to the forecasters as the questions each individual forecaster chooses to answer. If a forecasting firm wants to build a reputation, they could potentially learn how to ask questions that look harder to answer than they really are.
That’s a good point. For some of the questions, that’s a reasonable criticism, but as GJ Inc. becomes increasingly based on client-driven questions, it’s a less viable strategy.