I think this is exactly what most pundits do, and it’s well known that correct predictions are reputation makers.
The problem is that making more than one correct but still low-probability prediction is incredibly unlikely, since you multiply two small numbers. This functions as a very strong filter. And you don’t need to carefully vet track records to see when someone loudly gets it wrong, so as we see, most pundits stop making clear and non-consensus predictions once they start making money as pundits.
I think this is exactly what most pundits do, and it’s well known that correct predictions are reputation makers.
The problem is that making more than one correct but still low-probability prediction is incredibly unlikely, since you multiply two small numbers. This functions as a very strong filter. And you don’t need to carefully vet track records to see when someone loudly gets it wrong, so as we see, most pundits stop making clear and non-consensus predictions once they start making money as pundits.