“A good next step would be to create more consensus on the most productive interpretation for AGI timeline predictions. ”
Strongly agree with this. I don’t think the numbers are meaningful, since AGI could mean anything from “a CAIS system-of-systems that can be used to replace most menial jobs with greater than 50% success,” to “a system that can do any one of the majority of current jobs given an economically viable (<$10m) amount of direct training and supervision” to “A system that can do everything any human is able to do at least as well as that human, based only on available data and observation, without any direct training or feedback, for no marginal cost.”
Strongly agree with this. I don’t think the numbers are meaningful, since AGI could mean anything from “a CAIS system-of-systems that can be used to replace most menial jobs with greater than 50% success,” to “a system that can do any one of the majority of current jobs given an economically viable (<$10m) amount of direct training and supervision” to “A system that can do everything any human is able to do at least as well as that human, based only on available data and observation, without any direct training or feedback, for no marginal cost.”
I also just discovered BERI’s x-risk prediction market question set and Jacobjacob & bgold’s AI forecasting database, which seem really helpful for this!