This isn’t a random sample afaik. That said, 2x worse than a very bad flu year falls well within the current projections (flu: 8% of population, up to 60k dead, COVID maybe 15-20% infected 100-200k dead). Could also do 3x that though pretty easily.
I’d like to see a model for knock-on deaths from hospital overwhelm.
Naively if ICU fatality is ~30%, and we worst-case assume those all become deaths absent ventilators, that suggests about 3X higher deaths sans ventilators. However in reality we would/will probably just quickly produce more ventilators, start sharing ventilators, jury-rigging C-pack machines into ventilators, etc.
This isn’t a random sample afaik. That said, 2x worse than a very bad flu year falls well within the current projections (flu: 8% of population, up to 60k dead, COVID maybe 15-20% infected 100-200k dead). Could also do 3x that though pretty easily.
I’d like to see a model for knock-on deaths from hospital overwhelm.
Naively if ICU fatality is ~30%, and we worst-case assume those all become deaths absent ventilators, that suggests about 3X higher deaths sans ventilators. However in reality we would/will probably just quickly produce more ventilators, start sharing ventilators, jury-rigging C-pack machines into ventilators, etc.
Those are direct effects, but many other people won’t receive care or will have care postponed by general capacity overwhelm.