Interesting—hopefully it’s not long until someone publishes a serology random sampling study.
Not surprised at symptomatic fraction of 50% - was already indicated by DP, Iceland, and other data.
One thing that is surprising/mysterious to me is how steady the PCR test positive% has been across space and time. When the sampling is of general populations outside hospitals, it’s ~1% in Iceland without changing much over time, and 2% in NBA players and 1% in expats flown home from china.
The test positive fraction for tests conducted by clinics/hospitals in the US and Iceland is steady at about ~10% and hasn’t fluctuated greatly over time.
Of course there are some places where it’s much higher like 30% on DP, but that’s an exceptional environment.
Now the typical PCR test of nasal/throat swab is only accurate for about a week or so after infection, so it’s more of a blurred measure of the infection derivative, but still it doesn’t look like there’s any recent exponential growth—suggesting it was in the past.
Interesting—hopefully it’s not long until someone publishes a serology random sampling study.
Not surprised at symptomatic fraction of 50% - was already indicated by DP, Iceland, and other data.
One thing that is surprising/mysterious to me is how steady the PCR test positive% has been across space and time. When the sampling is of general populations outside hospitals, it’s ~1% in Iceland without changing much over time, and 2% in NBA players and 1% in expats flown home from china.
The test positive fraction for tests conducted by clinics/hospitals in the US and Iceland is steady at about ~10% and hasn’t fluctuated greatly over time.
Of course there are some places where it’s much higher like 30% on DP, but that’s an exceptional environment.
Now the typical PCR test of nasal/throat swab is only accurate for about a week or so after infection, so it’s more of a blurred measure of the infection derivative, but still it doesn’t look like there’s any recent exponential growth—suggesting it was in the past.