Yes I am. As should anyone actually paying attention.
News reports, which are usually behind reality, indicate >1000 out of ~1800 ICU beds in the city (which normally run at ~80% capacity for literally everything else) are currently occupied by Covid patients and that it is rising at >30% daily.
Everything we do now (procure ventilators etc) is in preparation for possible apex (when curve hits the highest point)
Apex in New York is estimated in 14-21 days from now
172 new ICU admission in the last day, vs. 374 in the preceding day, may indicate a decline in the growth rate
A demand of 1000 ICU beds suggests about 300K infected in NY assuming influenza like IFR of ~0.1% and ICU mortality of ~30%, so this isn’t in disagreement. More likely if 1M are infected demand should be for ~3000 ICU beds.
There may or may not be a difference in mean ICU/ventilator length of stay—that isn’t something I’ve looked at yet. According to Cuomo C19 patients need ventilators for 11 to 21 days vs 3 to 4 days for all other causes. This paper indicates 6 to 17 days for H1N1 in 2009.
Yes I am. As should anyone actually paying attention.
News reports, which are usually behind reality, indicate >1000 out of ~1800 ICU beds in the city (which normally run at ~80% capacity for literally everything else) are currently occupied by Covid patients and that it is rising at >30% daily.
https://nypost.com/2020/03/28/coronavirus-in-ny-citys-icu-bed-capacity-ranks-in-bottom-quarter-nationally/
Paramedics are scrambling, responding to more calls daily than on 9/11.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/28/nyregion/nyc-coronavirus-ems.html
From Govenor Cuomo’s briefing:
A demand of 1000 ICU beds suggests about 300K infected in NY assuming influenza like IFR of ~0.1% and ICU mortality of ~30%, so this isn’t in disagreement. More likely if 1M are infected demand should be for ~3000 ICU beds.
There may or may not be a difference in mean ICU/ventilator length of stay—that isn’t something I’ve looked at yet. According to Cuomo C19 patients need ventilators for 11 to 21 days vs 3 to 4 days for all other causes. This paper indicates 6 to 17 days for H1N1 in 2009.