How many times more contagious (if uncontrolled) and critical/fatal (without hospital overcrowding) is it than a typical flu?
Diamond Princess indicates at *least* 2x on both counts IMO. I think it’s a bit shady to say that 2x is ′ well within the range of uncertainty ′ as if that means something.
I hope it’s only 2x worse; I believe 5x on contagion and 3x on severity pre-overcrowding.
For the contagious part—I guess what really matters is what % of the population it could infect, and how fast that could occur. But most of the world has gone into social isolation, which at least in the US appears to already have been highly successful.
The kinsa thermometer dataset is quite interesting and worthy of it’s own post. If you look at places that didn’t do much social isolation in time, like Miami, it appears that the answers may be that it causes fevers in about the same % of the population as the flu does, and cycles through the population in perhaps half the time-frame (viruses move through cities faster in general).
The ICU admission rate for hospitalizations and the ICU fatality rate are very similar to influenza (links in this post), and those conclusions are from larger datasets than DP.
I disagree that the DP data indicates 2x higher than influenza in either count. My analysis in the post linked above failed to factor in under-reporting (small but still likely given late testing), adjustments for expected deaths and probably had too many deaths in the 70-80 age group. The analysis in this post from Nic Lewis is more detailed and in closer agreement with influenza mortality.
From the current evidence at this point I think a reasonable bayesian should have a log-normal distribution on all-age IFR, but it’s surely centered on influenza IFR—something like LogNormalDistribution[-2, 0.5].
How can the ICU admission rate be similar to the flu, when fever levels (healtweather.us) in New York are lower than the peak of flu season but they are strapped for space?
Are you saying that some significant fraction of NY hospitals are currently overcrowded with C19 patients right now? Or that one hospital is? What is the actual dataset source for “they are strapped for space”?
Yes I am. As should anyone actually paying attention.
News reports, which are usually behind reality, indicate >1000 out of ~1800 ICU beds in the city (which normally run at ~80% capacity for literally everything else) are currently occupied by Covid patients and that it is rising at >30% daily.
Everything we do now (procure ventilators etc) is in preparation for possible apex (when curve hits the highest point)
Apex in New York is estimated in 14-21 days from now
172 new ICU admission in the last day, vs. 374 in the preceding day, may indicate a decline in the growth rate
A demand of 1000 ICU beds suggests about 300K infected in NY assuming influenza like IFR of ~0.1% and ICU mortality of ~30%, so this isn’t in disagreement. More likely if 1M are infected demand should be for ~3000 ICU beds.
There may or may not be a difference in mean ICU/ventilator length of stay—that isn’t something I’ve looked at yet. According to Cuomo C19 patients need ventilators for 11 to 21 days vs 3 to 4 days for all other causes. This paper indicates 6 to 17 days for H1N1 in 2009.
How many times more contagious (if uncontrolled) and critical/fatal (without hospital overcrowding) is it than a typical flu?
Diamond Princess indicates at *least* 2x on both counts IMO. I think it’s a bit shady to say that 2x is ′ well within the range of uncertainty ′ as if that means something.
I hope it’s only 2x worse; I believe 5x on contagion and 3x on severity pre-overcrowding.
For the contagious part—I guess what really matters is what % of the population it could infect, and how fast that could occur. But most of the world has gone into social isolation, which at least in the US appears to already have been highly successful.
The kinsa thermometer dataset is quite interesting and worthy of it’s own post. If you look at places that didn’t do much social isolation in time, like Miami, it appears that the answers may be that it causes fevers in about the same % of the population as the flu does, and cycles through the population in perhaps half the time-frame (viruses move through cities faster in general).
The ICU admission rate for hospitalizations and the ICU fatality rate are very similar to influenza (links in this post), and those conclusions are from larger datasets than DP.
I disagree that the DP data indicates 2x higher than influenza in either count. My analysis in the post linked above failed to factor in under-reporting (small but still likely given late testing), adjustments for expected deaths and probably had too many deaths in the 70-80 age group. The analysis in this post from Nic Lewis is more detailed and in closer agreement with influenza mortality.
From the current evidence at this point I think a reasonable bayesian should have a log-normal distribution on all-age IFR, but it’s surely centered on influenza IFR—something like LogNormalDistribution[-2, 0.5].
How can the ICU admission rate be similar to the flu, when fever levels (healtweather.us) in New York are lower than the peak of flu season but they are strapped for space?
Are you saying that some significant fraction of NY hospitals are currently overcrowded with C19 patients right now? Or that one hospital is? What is the actual dataset source for “they are strapped for space”?
Yes I am. As should anyone actually paying attention.
News reports, which are usually behind reality, indicate >1000 out of ~1800 ICU beds in the city (which normally run at ~80% capacity for literally everything else) are currently occupied by Covid patients and that it is rising at >30% daily.
https://nypost.com/2020/03/28/coronavirus-in-ny-citys-icu-bed-capacity-ranks-in-bottom-quarter-nationally/
Paramedics are scrambling, responding to more calls daily than on 9/11.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/28/nyregion/nyc-coronavirus-ems.html
From Govenor Cuomo’s briefing:
A demand of 1000 ICU beds suggests about 300K infected in NY assuming influenza like IFR of ~0.1% and ICU mortality of ~30%, so this isn’t in disagreement. More likely if 1M are infected demand should be for ~3000 ICU beds.
There may or may not be a difference in mean ICU/ventilator length of stay—that isn’t something I’ve looked at yet. According to Cuomo C19 patients need ventilators for 11 to 21 days vs 3 to 4 days for all other causes. This paper indicates 6 to 17 days for H1N1 in 2009.