164 close contacts tested by PCR and serology. 16⁄164 of contacts PCR+ & all PCR+ also serology+. Additional 7⁄164 were serology+ but PCR-. Overall 23⁄164 close contacts + in at least one test; 10⁄23 were asymptomatic.
Asymptomatic fraction circa 50%. Upper range of what I thought likely. Not the vast majority at all. Actual death rate in the normal population most likely circa 0.6%.
Interesting—hopefully it’s not long until someone publishes a serology random sampling study.
Not surprised at symptomatic fraction of 50% - was already indicated by DP, Iceland, and other data.
One thing that is surprising/mysterious to me is how steady the PCR test positive% has been across space and time. When the sampling is of general populations outside hospitals, it’s ~1% in Iceland without changing much over time, and 2% in NBA players and 1% in expats flown home from china.
The test positive fraction for tests conducted by clinics/hospitals in the US and Iceland is steady at about ~10% and hasn’t fluctuated greatly over time.
Of course there are some places where it’s much higher like 30% on DP, but that’s an exceptional environment.
Now the typical PCR test of nasal/throat swab is only accurate for about a week or so after infection, so it’s more of a blurred measure of the infection derivative, but still it doesn’t look like there’s any recent exponential growth—suggesting it was in the past.
Very first serology data coming out.
164 close contacts tested by PCR and serology. 16⁄164 of contacts PCR+ & all PCR+ also serology+. Additional 7⁄164 were serology+ but PCR-. Overall 23⁄164 close contacts + in at least one test; 10⁄23 were asymptomatic.
Asymptomatic fraction circa 50%. Upper range of what I thought likely. Not the vast majority at all. Actual death rate in the normal population most likely circa 0.6%.
https://t.co/nPiD6UP1eY?amp=1
Interesting—hopefully it’s not long until someone publishes a serology random sampling study.
Not surprised at symptomatic fraction of 50% - was already indicated by DP, Iceland, and other data.
One thing that is surprising/mysterious to me is how steady the PCR test positive% has been across space and time. When the sampling is of general populations outside hospitals, it’s ~1% in Iceland without changing much over time, and 2% in NBA players and 1% in expats flown home from china.
The test positive fraction for tests conducted by clinics/hospitals in the US and Iceland is steady at about ~10% and hasn’t fluctuated greatly over time.
Of course there are some places where it’s much higher like 30% on DP, but that’s an exceptional environment.
Now the typical PCR test of nasal/throat swab is only accurate for about a week or so after infection, so it’s more of a blurred measure of the infection derivative, but still it doesn’t look like there’s any recent exponential growth—suggesting it was in the past.