On the numbers from The Precipice—I think the point is that the next 100 years have an estimated 1⁄6 chance of extinction, but also contain the power to protect us from future harm and facilitate the human race flourishing across the universe. Extrapolating risk from next 100 years to an expected 600 year lifespan, and using current population forecasts as the number of humans involved therefore seems not in the spirit of his model.
I thought I read Ord give the 600 year figure, but maybe I’m mistaken. Anyway that would presumably be a correct extrapolation if we continue ‘business as usual’ - i.e. without taking steps that would reduce the risk. (Not least as the risks are otherwise increasing, due to e.g. it getting easier and easier to create deadly bioweapons.)
I don’t see anything wrong in using current population forecasts, since I don’t think anyone’s suggesting they would be far wrong AFAIK? Give or take a few billion. (Unless we leave earth and set up massive space colonies elsewhere, which I suppose could happen in a few centuries perhaps, but even then seems unlikely to produce very many billions more people that quickly.)
On the numbers from The Precipice—I think the point is that the next 100 years have an estimated 1⁄6 chance of extinction, but also contain the power to protect us from future harm and facilitate the human race flourishing across the universe. Extrapolating risk from next 100 years to an expected 600 year lifespan, and using current population forecasts as the number of humans involved therefore seems not in the spirit of his model.
I thought I read Ord give the 600 year figure, but maybe I’m mistaken. Anyway that would presumably be a correct extrapolation if we continue ‘business as usual’ - i.e. without taking steps that would reduce the risk. (Not least as the risks are otherwise increasing, due to e.g. it getting easier and easier to create deadly bioweapons.)
I don’t see anything wrong in using current population forecasts, since I don’t think anyone’s suggesting they would be far wrong AFAIK? Give or take a few billion. (Unless we leave earth and set up massive space colonies elsewhere, which I suppose could happen in a few centuries perhaps, but even then seems unlikely to produce very many billions more people that quickly.)