The objective time taken for progress in AI is more significant than whether that progress is continuous or discontinuous
I don’t think I agree? Presence of discontinuities determines which research agendas will or won’t work, and so is extremely decision-relevant; in contrast objective time taken has very little influence on research agendas.
Objective time might be more important for e.g. AI strategy and policy; I haven’t thought about it that much, though my immediate guess is that even there the presence/absence of discontinuities will be a key crux in what sorts of institutions we should aim for.
I don’t think I agree? Presence of discontinuities determines which research agendas will or won’t work, and so is extremely decision-relevant; in contrast objective time taken has very little influence on research agendas.
Objective time might be more important for e.g. AI strategy and policy; I haven’t thought about it that much, though my immediate guess is that even there the presence/absence of discontinuities will be a key crux in what sorts of institutions we should aim for.