It’s hard to predict how fully or quickly things will bounce back. For this segment, it’s easy to believe that closure of theaters and massive changes to the value (and price) of TV advertising will be a spur to re-evaluate the business models of entertainment production, and producers will be cautious in committing too soon. And this fill further slow the recovery of the industry, possibly settling at a different equilibrium than before.
This is my general story for long-term effects of the shutdown—each industry is complex and idiosyncratic, but all were in path-dependent equilibria before 2020, and the disruption has shaken things up enough that the resulting steady(-ish) state will be different.
My predictions of where those equilibria settle (less human effort into status and mindless/harmful entertainment, more human effort into harder-to-measure values) tend to align with my preferences, so I discount them heavily. I have no clue what’ll actually happen, but it’ll almost certainly feel normal within a few years.
I’m curious why you don’t expect this to bounce back when the pandemic or recession is over?
It’s hard to predict how fully or quickly things will bounce back. For this segment, it’s easy to believe that closure of theaters and massive changes to the value (and price) of TV advertising will be a spur to re-evaluate the business models of entertainment production, and producers will be cautious in committing too soon. And this fill further slow the recovery of the industry, possibly settling at a different equilibrium than before.
This is my general story for long-term effects of the shutdown—each industry is complex and idiosyncratic, but all were in path-dependent equilibria before 2020, and the disruption has shaken things up enough that the resulting steady(-ish) state will be different.
My predictions of where those equilibria settle (less human effort into status and mindless/harmful entertainment, more human effort into harder-to-measure values) tend to align with my preferences, so I discount them heavily. I have no clue what’ll actually happen, but it’ll almost certainly feel normal within a few years.